Structural Weakness

If there is a structural weakness in the Liberal party, it is due, I think, to factional infighting. It takes time to build a winning coalition and if Liberals want to affect the direction of this country (on health care, on the economy, on our role in the world), that's what the party should be focussing on now.

We need more money first off. By my estimate the next round of Harper attack ads will come out before Christmas. Will we be able to respond?

Also, there is, I believe, a remarkable potential for growth in Quebec. But that will require alot of patient effort, working the ridings and building networks and friendships.

None of the things which we need to do to win the next election will happen if the factions are allowed at each other again. I can only imagine that another leadership contest would exacerbate the structural weakness of the party in many and unexpected ways.

How long after such a contest would it be before "Senior Anonymous Liberals" of the losing factions start telling an emboldened CTV(spit)that the new leader is incompetent and not in control of caucus? How many more Libloggers will regurgitate Conservative talking points and openly disparage a new leader during the next campaign? How many Liberal partisans will sit on the sidelines until their "guy" wins.

These contests are emotionally divisive and the party will look incredibly weak during the minority parliament (feeding the NDP narrative). If we seed bad faith now, we will harvest some ugly twisted fruit during the next election.

Dion ran a good campaign without gaffes. And at a certain point last week, alot of Liberals started to think that we just might be able to pull off a victory. In the last few days the tide turned. I think the most effective use of the party's emotional and intellectual resources would be to figure out what changed in those few days. How do we mount a better campaign next time.

This definitely involves analysis of the Green Shift. We may need to drop the carbon tax because the envrionmental movement is fickle and undisciplined. If there is going to be a serious engagement of environmental issues, we'll need to Will it into being within the framework of our own party. But no one is going to come up with the policies that will unite the party if we head into a leadership contest now.

So, if I were Stephane, my first instinct would be to tell the champions of division where to stick it (diplomatically but firmly).

I am a Grit, though. But I think Stephane Dion is one too.

Hope and Patience

I want action on the environment. I want to decrease child poverty. I want a responsible government that brings together the best minds in the country to solve our economic and social needs.

There are many people in the country who want the same thing as I do. We now have to consider what is the best way to deliver the intelligence and good will of Canadians to this end.

Its been a long campaign. We all need some time to withdraw and in a few weeks soberly consider the way forward. I am proud to be a Liberal. I believe in the issues that the party has forwarded in this election. We should never be ashamed of our aspiration for a better Canada.

Why I am Voting for Change

I care about the environment and I want more doctors and nurses.

I want Canada to get away from the neverending Conservative "War on Terror"

And I want Stephen Harper replaced tomorrow.

As Elizabeth May has said, Stephen Harper's "plan" to reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming is a fraud. If Harper remains as Prime Minister, Canada will do nothing. Worse the Conservatives actually sabotage at international meetings the efforts of countries that want to do something about this crisis.


The Conservative response to global warming. A grease spot attack ad. Here is a spoof.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AI6HaoVde4I





The Liberals Green Shift plan brings together scientists concerned about the environment with the brightest Canadian minds from the field of economics. All working together to develop the best long-term strategy to create a sustainable economy. Providing industry and individual voters the incentives and investments they need to really make a difference.

The Liberals also have an ambitious plan to decrease child poverty as well increase the number of doctors and nurses at a time when aging Baby Boomers will be putting the Canadian Health system under increasing stress. The Liberal platform.

And then there is the expensive and violent Conservative War on Terror.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7xyd_IRgGs





Stephen Harper wanted Canada to invade Iraq.

He said so in a speech that he plagiarized from the right-wing Prime Minister of Australia.

Fortunately it was a Liberal government at the time who said, NO to George Bush's war of aggression.

We will get nothing we want if Harper gets re-elected. Nothing but more wars, more prisons, and more poverty.

It is time to replace Harper with a progressive Liberal government.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzmI3XrF0f0

Tremendous Disappointment for Harper

The immense room reserved for Harper's big end of campaign booster rally in Quebec City was almost empty today (organizers scrambled to get the fewer than 500 partisans who showed up in the aspirational "heart" region of the Conservative Quebec strategy). Read about it here in LaPresse.

"Mauvais messages, stratégie contre-productive.

Mais il y a plus. Le chef lui-même n’est vraiment pas inspirant.

Ses discours sont ennuyants, son sourire est forcé et le contact avec les gens restent pénible.

Plus de quatre ans après avoir pris la tête du nouveau Parti conservateur, M. Harper n’a pas réussit à se rapprocher des électeurs. Au contraire, il traine même la réputation d’être indifférent aux préoccupations de ses concitoyens."

(translation mine; read the original)

"Bad messaging and a counter productive strategy.

But there is more. The leader himself is not inspiring.

His speeches are boring, his smile is forced and the interaction with people is painful. More than four years after taking the leadership of this new Conservative party, Mr. Harper has still not succeeded in reaching the voters. To the contrary, he drags behind him a reputation for not caring about the concerns of the people."

See also this insightful analysis of the Harper disaster in Quebec. Harper was supposed to have this election in the bag, but Quebeckers see clearly his hard right wing agenda. More wars, more prisons, no action on the environment and a poor record of economic management. Plus he's a jerk.

We need to replace Stephen Harper with a progressive government.

Harper's Leadership Doubted

According to Nanos, Harper's personal impopularity may hold his party back. The Globe and Mail reports that it may be a good strategy for Harper to refuse questions from the media for the remainder of the campaign.

Kim Campell: A campaign is no time to talk about policy.

Stephen Harper: A campaign is no time to answer voters questions.

Other good reasons for Harper to hide from the media:
He has no platform to run on (22 pages of Harper photos does not count). And new evidence contradicts Harper's version of the Cadman bribery scandal

What is Harper hiding now?



Stéphane Dion Day Thirty-Four

Who Will Fight For Canada?

Who will fight for a Canada?

Chretien knows (we all know) that Stephane Dion will.

Here is the link to Chretien's speech in Brampton on Friday night

The best line of the night goes to Dion according to Radio-Canada. I will post Dion's speech as soon as I can find it.

It is time to replace Harper and his incompetent ministers with a strong Liberal government.

Dion On the Issues

When Dion talks about the issues he is at his best.

Here is Stephane Dion's interview with Lloyd Robertson on CTV (spit).

Listen at the end when Lloyd reluctantly raises the delicate issue of language.

Does the fact that Dion is a francophone disqualify him to be Prime Minister? Dion playfully turns the issue around and asks Lloyd what he thinks. And the well-humoured cosmopolitan Lloyd responds "I understand you." Lloyd's no bigot.

This is not to say anything about how Lloyd will vote, he does work for CTV (spit) afterall, but
the people that Dion needs to reach understand what he is saying when he speaks about the issues. And the issues are what the people will vote for if they hear them.

I don't believe in the noisy little ups and downs of polls +/- up to 10 % (especially in consideration of their empirically established conservative bias i.e. six to ten points overrated in the most recent federal elections (what are they really measuring?)), but the dramatic plunge in the Conservative polling numbers 11-15 points when Canadians started really hearing about the different parties policies, indicates to me that they are motivated by the issues (if they hear them). Leadership is a short-cut that doesn't really work in a campaign. But you can still hear the last whining shrieks of air coming out of that bag of nothing from the media.

Liberal policies: français english

Harper loses his cool

Harper enters whole new territories of shrill partisanship.

Harper is trying to make an issue out of an interview Dion had with CTV. Dion is really good generally in the interview format. The interviewer asks a complicated hypothetical question; Dion asks him to clarify; they joke around a bit, then start again. You can go watch the video, or look at Harper's over-the-top reaction. (It is a desperate Rovian attempt to distract voters from the issues)

But the only thing you are likely to remember about this by Sunday is the joke told about it in Brampton at the Liberal gathering on Friday night.

Why don't you try.

It could be a couple sentences long, but a one-liner would be preferable.

Here are the ingredients:
Harper's lack of concern for working families in tough times
Harper's pettiness
Harper's hyper-partisanship
Harper's lack of a platform
(22pages of pictures of yourself does not count, Steve)
Harper's doubtful judgement in spontaneous situations
Harper's history of distortions
Harper's negative attack ads
Harper's lack of vision

Extra points if you can also convey how you REALLY feel about Mike Duffy Live or bird poop.

If you live in a family that has a history of voting Liberal at any point since 1993, that's the joke you will hear repeated at Thanksgiving dinner.

The question remains who will deliver the joke. My bet is da little guy from Shawinigan.

Dion Could Be Our Next Prime Minister

Dion could be our next Prime Minister according to Stephen Harper. Yes, that is possible.

And I have every confidence that Dion would make a very good Prime Minister with an exceptionally strong cabinet. Since the debates, Dion has reached the voters that could make this happen. And he will be able to work well with the other parties. There is a shrewdness in Dion's negociating abilities that the media have not picked up on yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-NZqGGyREs



But I am not sure why Harper is advertising a Liberal government now.

My gut tells me this is yet another mistake (similar for example to his profound miscalculation about the "War on Terror" or calling this election etc. etc. etc.)

It is probably based on some polling data and a complex secret statistical formula hidden in the darkest depths of the Conservative War Room. One vote here, two votes there. Or maybe Harper is just winging it again. I am guessing that Harper believes the possibility of a Liberal government will make Canadians afraid maybe? Really? Outside of his base, I just don't see how this will be effective.

And Harper's real base is much less than was pretended. That is becoming more obvious since the LEADERSHIP fantasy has exploded.

I recall it being reported earlier in the campaign that Harper's support was very firm. But this cannot have been true and I don't think it is anymore true now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkbD7gn8WII



Yes, Dion could be our next Prime Minister.

French

English

Harper: Oops! I forgot to write a Platform

Harper is in his third election campaign, but he somehow forgot to write a coherent platform before the start of the campaign. That's not smart. There are a number of miscalculations on Harper's part that I think are going to come under increasing scrutiny in the remaining days of the campaign. Mistakes and blunders.

One of Harper's glaring weaknesses is his inablity to perform in the confrontational one-on-one interview format. Harper gets angry and brittle.

The debates were in a very similar format and that hurt him (especially in Quebec)

Compare and Contrast Dion/Harper Interviewed on RadioCanada.

Harper' s Interview

Dion's Interview

(try clicking the links twice; the second try seems to work or just go here)

Harper's body language is all wrong. At one point, in a defensive posture, Harper looks like he is trying to shove his shoulders into his ears. But that is not the major problem.

It is not because Harper has an accent. Harper's french is not good, but that is not the reason why he is doing so miserably in Quebec right now. Dion's english is highly accented too, but he is able to use english much more effectively than Harper. Listen to the interview when Bernard Derome asks Harper what he meant when he said that Canadians have become more conservative. The problem is not Harper's french (which is not good) but that he does not have an answer beyond the soundbite.

In general Harper demonstrates a lack of reflexion in all his answers. Dion excels in this format because it shows he has thought through the issues before and is only looking for the correct words to express his ideas. Under close questioning, Harper's ideas are absent beyond glib one-liners.

Derome is equally tough on both Dion and Harper (well maybe a little easier on Harper because of the language barrier). The funniest part is at the end of the Harper interview when Derome takes Harper to task over rumours (rumours intitiated by Conservatives) that a Conservative government would dismantle the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Harper totally flubs the answer.

The problem with Harper in Quebec is the issues. And he should have known this and planned for it a long time ago. Harper is on the wrong side of almost every issue and a smile won't cover that up. (Not that Harper even tries to smile)

The Conservatives are heading toward disaster in Quebec. Harper is to blame.

Stephen Harper is a BUNGLER!

There is more news of economic turmoil with governments around the world taking action to shield themselves against the worst, while Stephen Harper releases his platform to tackle Senate Reform. Senate Reform?

If Stephen Harper gets back into government, you are on your own because he will be very busy reopening the Constitution to tackle Senate reform. It's just that important to him.

Stephen Harper is a bungler.
And I think he is getting desperate.

--------------------------

Update: By contrast here is Stephane Dion: energized, confident and at ease talking about policy.

What the Liberals will do to address the economic crises in the first 30 days of forming a government. The immediate Plan

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRnK8WugX-Y



-Speed up investments in infrastructure and the manufacturing sector to create an immediate economic stimulus
-Demand the recommendations of the major financial institutions and leading economists
-Coordinate the efforts of the provinces to protect Canada against the international crisis

Sounds pretty reasonable to me given the circumstances.

I am still not clear whether Stephen Harper believes that there is a problem.

A Gimmicky Conservative Platform

I think that it is becoming increasingly clear that Stephen Harper's perfomance in the leaders debate in english was awful (and in french just disastrous).

In the face of life-changing economic upheaval, Harper is preparing to do nothing.

And Canadians saw that in the debates.

If Harper manages to form a second government, you are on your own.

Tomorrow, the Conservatives bowing to public pressure will offer a face saving and belated policy platform. Like most Conservative policy announcements, it will be made to great fanfare. And like most Harper announcements, it will be thoroughly discredited within two or three days.

I suspect that the platform will be laundry list of tax loopholes that will render the Canadian tax system more arcane and difficult to navigate.

If the Conservatives want to lose the election definitively, they will talk about Senate reform and reopening the constistution.

What we won't get tomorrow is visionary policy.

It will be B.S. in front of a media-friendly backdrop.

Thousands at Anti-Harper Rally Today

Thousands (10 000+) of concerned citizens rallied to protest against the hard-right wing policies of the Harper governement today in Montreal.

Watch the news report here.

Harper is a threat to the Canada we want.

Effective Ads

Stephane Dion's performance during the Leaders Debates was excellent.

He speak the truth best in english and french. ;)

(It puts to rest that strange Harper talking point about Dion's proficiency in english. Good. In the tight linguistic game of a high-stakes televised Leaders debate, Dion articulated the Liberal plan precisely. I always viewed the slurs on Dion's english as a species of conservative bigot talk anyway. And a bit ironic considering Harper's obvious weakness in french. But I live in Quebec...)

Here are some ads that are out. The effect is cumulative and I think quite powerful. I got the full message after watching a few of them.

The ads are simple. And the talk is straight. Here is a selection.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2E-Eq37qdw





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu6z-l8Um_Y





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5DZmpE6_AE





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lkNHUK9Jis





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRvSo3egncA





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SkffVIPh-M





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awN1WejijFw